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High-frequency information content in end-user foreign exchange order flows

Marsh, I. W. and Miao, T. (2012). High-frequency information content in end-user foreign exchange order flows. The European Journal of Finance, 18(9), pp. 865-884. doi: 10.1080/1351847X.2011.601652

Abstract

This article considers the impact of foreign exchange (FX) order flows on contemporaneous and future stock market returns using a new database of customer order flows in the euro-dollar exchange rate market as seen by a leading European bank. We do not find clear contemporaneous relationships between FX order flows and stock market changes at high frequencies, but FX flows do appear to have significant power to forecast stock index returns over 1–30 min horizons, after controlling for lagged exchange rate and stock market returns. The effects of order flows from financial customers on future stock market changes are negative, while the effects of corporate orders are positive. The latter results are consistent with the premise that corporate order flows contain dispersed, passively acquired information about fundamentals. Thus, purchases of the dollar by corporate customers represent good news about the state of the US economy. Importantly, though, there also appears to be extra information in corporate flows which is directly relevant to equity prices over and above the impact derived from stock prices reacting to (predicted) exchange rate changes. Our findings suggest that financial customer flows only affect stock prices through their impact on the value of the dollar.

Publication Type: Article
Additional Information: This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in The European Journal of Finance on 10/9/2012, available online: http://wwww.tandfonline.com/10.1080/1351847X.2011.601652.
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Departments: Cass Business School > Finance
URI: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/12154
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