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A tree-based decision model to support prediction of the severity of asthma exacerbations in children

Farion, K., Michalowski, W., Wilk, S., O'Sullivan, D. and Matwin, S. (2010). A tree-based decision model to support prediction of the severity of asthma exacerbations in children. Journal of Medical Systems, 34(4), pp. 551-562. doi: 10.1007/s10916-009-9268-7

Abstract

This paper describes the development of a tree-based decision model to predict the severity of pediatric asthma exacerbations in the emergency department (ED) at 2 h following triage. The model was constructed from retrospective patient data abstracted from the ED charts. The original data was preprocessed to eliminate questionable patient records and to normalize values of age-dependent clinical attributes. The model uses attributes routinely collected in the ED and provides predictions even for incomplete observations. Its performance was verified on independent validating data (split-sample validation) where it demonstrated AUC (area under ROC curve) of 0.83, sensitivity of 84%, specificity of 71% and the Brier score of 0.18. The model is intended to supplement an asthma clinical practice guideline, however, it can be also used as a stand-alone decision tool.

Publication Type: Article
Additional Information: The final publication is available at Springer via http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10916-009-9268-7
Publisher Keywords: Decision making, Asthma, Child Retrospective studies, Decision trees
Subjects: R Medicine > RC Internal medicine
Departments: School of Mathematics, Computer Science & Engineering > Computer Science
URI: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/13210
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