Examination of Bayesian belief network for safety assessment of nuclear computer-based systems

Littlewood, B., Strigini, L., Wright, D. & Courtois, P.-J. (1998). Examination of Bayesian belief network for safety assessment of nuclear computer-based systems (Report No. 70). Brussels: DeVa ESPRIT Long Term Research Project.

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Abstract

We report here on a continuation of work on the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN)model described in [Fenton, Littlewood et al. 1998]. As explained in the previous deliverable, our model concerns one part of the safety assessment task for computer and software based nuclear systems. We have produced a first complete, functioning version of our BBN model by eliciting a large numerical node probability table (NPT) required for our ‘Design Process Performance’ variable. The requirement for such large numerical NPTs poses some difficult questions about how, in general, large NPTs should be elicited from domain experts. We report about the methods we have devised to support the expert in building and validating a BBN. On the one hand, we have proceeded by eliciting approximate descriptions of the expert’s probabilistic beliefs, in terms of properties like stochastic orderings among distributions; on the other hand, we have explored ways of presenting to the expert visual and algebraic descriptions of relations among variables in the BBN, to assist the expert in an ongoing assessment of the validity of the BBN.

Item Type: Report
Additional Information: DeVa ESPRIT Long Term Research Project No. 20072 - 3rd Year Report, pp. 411-448, Dec, 1998.
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science
Divisions: School of Informatics > Centre for Software Reliability
Related URLs:
URI: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/2156

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