Geometrically designed, variable knot regression splines: variation diminish optimality of knots

Kaishev, V. K., Dimitrova, D. S., Haberman, S. & Verrall, R. J. (2006). Geometrically designed, variable knot regression splines: variation diminish optimality of knots (Report No. Statistical Research Paper No. 29). London, UK: Faculty of Actuarial Science & Insurance, City University London.

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A new method for Computer Aided Geometric Design of variable knot regression splines, named GeDS, has recently been introduced by Kaishev et al. (2006). The method utilizes the close geometric relationship between a spline regression function and its control polygon, with vertices whose y-coordinates are the regression coefficients and whose x-coordinates are certain averages of the knots, known as the Greville sites. The method involves two stages, A and B. In stage A, a linear LS spline fit to the data is constructed, and viewed as the initial position of the control polygon of a higher order (n > 2) smooth spline curve. In stage B, the optimal set of knots of this higher order spline curve is found, so that its control polygon is as close to the initial polygon of stage A as possible, and finally the LS estimates of the regression coefficients of this curve are found. In Kaishev et al. (2006) the implementation of stage A has been thoroughly addressed and the pointwise asymptotic properties of the GeD spline estimator have been explored and used to construct asymptotic confidence intervals.

In this paper, the focus of the attention is at giving further insight into the optimality properties of the knots of the higher order spline curve, obtained in stage B so that it is nearly a variation diminishing (shape preserving) spline approximation to the linear fit of stage A. Error bounds for this approximation are derived. Extensive numerical examples are provided, illustrating the performance of GeDS and the quality of the resulting LS spline fits. The GeDS estimator is compared with other existing variable knot spline methods and smoothing techniques and is shown to perform very well, producing nearly optimal spline regression models. It is fast and numerically efficient, since no deterministic or stochastic knot insertion/deletion and relocation search strategies are involved.

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Uncontrolled Keywords: spline regression, B-splines, Greville abscissae, variable knot splines, control polygon, asymptotic confidence interval
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Divisions: Cass Business School > Faculty of Actuarial Science & Insurance > Faculty of Actuarial Science & Insurance Statistical Research Reports

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