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Can quantum probability provide a new direction for cognitive modeling?

Pothos, E. M. and Busemeyer, J. R. (2013). Can quantum probability provide a new direction for cognitive modeling?. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 36(3), pp. 255-274. doi: 10.1017/S0140525X12001525

Abstract

Classical (Bayesian) probability (CP) theory has led to an influential research tradition for modeling cognitive processes. Cognitive scientists have been trained to work with CP principles for so long that it is hard to even imagine alternative ways to formalize probabilities. Yet, in physics, quantum probability (QP) theory has been the dominant probabilistic approach for nearly 100 years. Could QP theory provide us with any advantages in cognitive modeling as well? Note first that both CP and QP theory share the fundamental assumption that it is possible to model cognition on the basis of formal, probabilistic principles. But why consider a QP approach? The answers are that (a) there are many well established empirical findings (e.g., from the influential Tversky, Kahneman research tradition) which are hard to reconcile with CP principles; and (b) these same findings have natural and straightforward accounts with quantum principles. In QP theory, probabilistic assessment is often strongly context and order dependent, individual states can be superposition states (which are impossible to associate with specific values), and composite systems can be entangled (they cannot be decomposed into their subsystems). All these characteristics appear perplexing from a classical perspective. Yet our thesis is that they provide a more accurate and powerful account of certain cognitive processes. We first introduce QP theory and illustrate its application with psychological examples. We then review empirical findings which motivate the use of quantum theory in cognitive theory, but also discuss ways in which QP and CP theories converge. Finally, we consider the implications of a QP theory approach to cognition for human rationality.

Publication Type: Article
Subjects: B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology
Departments: School of Arts & Social Sciences > Psychology
URI: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/2428
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