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U.S. fiscal indicators, inflation and output

Aksoy, Y. and Melina, G. (2011). U.S. fiscal indicators, inflation and output. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 22(3), pp. 221-236. doi: 10.1016/j.najef.2011.02.001

Abstract

In this paper we explore the information content of a large set of fiscal indicators for US real output growth and inflation. We provide evidence that fluctuations in certain fiscal variables contain valuable information to predict fluctuations in output and prices. The distinction between federal and state-local fiscal indicators yields useful insights and helps define a new set of stylized facts for US macroeconomic conditions. First, we find that variations in state-local indirect taxes as well as state government surplus or deficit help predict output growth. Next, the federal counterparts of these indicators contain valuable information for inflation. Finally, state-local expenditures help predict US inflation. A set of formal and informal stability tests confirm that these relationships are stable. The fiscal indicators in questions are also among the ones that yield the best in-sample and out-of-sample performances.

Publication Type: Article
Additional Information: NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in North American Journal of Economics and Finance. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Volume 22, Issue 3, Pages 221–236, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2011.02.001
Publisher Keywords: Information value, state-local finances, fiscal variables, Granger causality
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Departments: School of Arts & Social Sciences > Economics
URI: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/3778
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