Leccadito, A., Boffelli, S. & Urga, G. (2014). Evaluating the Accuracy of Value-at-Risk Forecasts: New Multilevel Tests. International Journal of Forecasting, 30(2), pp. 206-216. doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.07.014
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We propose independence and conditional coverage tests which are aimed at evaluating the accuracy of Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts from the same model at different confidence levels. The proposed procedures are multilevel tests, i.e., joint tests of several quantiles corresponding to different confidence levels. In a comprehensive Monte Carlo exercise, we document the superiority of the proposed tests with respect to existing multilevel tests. In an empirical application, we illustrate the implementation of the tests using several VaR models and daily data for 15 MSCI world indices.
|Additional Information:||© 2014, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/|
|Uncontrolled Keywords:||Risk management; Value-at-risk; Backtesting; Conditional and unconditional coverage tests; Monte Carlo|
|Subjects:||H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Q Science > QA Mathematics
|Divisions:||Cass Business School > Faculty of Finance|
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