Kaishev, V. K., Dimitrova, D. S. and Ignatov, Z. G. (2008). Operational risk and insurance: a ruin probabilistic reserving approach. JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RISK, 3(3),
Abstract
A new methodology for financial and insurance operational risk capital estimation is proposed. It is based on using the finite time probability of (non)ruin as an operational risk measure, within a general risk model. It allows for inhomogeneous operational loss frequency (dependent interarrival times) and dependent loss severities which may have any joint discrete or continuous distribution. Under the proposed methodology, operational risk capital assessment is viewed not as a one off exercise, performed at some moment of time, but as dynamic reserving, following a certain risk capital accumulation function. The latter describes the accumulation of risk capital with time and may be any nondecreasing, mpositive real function hHtL. Under these reasonably general assumptions, the probability of mnonruin is explicitly expressed using closed form expressions, derived by Ignatov and Kaishev (2000, 2004, 2007) and Ignatov, Kaishev and Krachunov (2001) and by setting it to a high enough preassigned mvalue, say 0.99, it is possible to obtain not just a value for the capital charge but a (dynamic) risk capital accumulation strategy, hHtL. In view of its generality, the proposed methodology is capable of accommodating any (heavy tailed) mdistributions, such as the Generalized Pareto Distribution, the Lognormal distribution the gandh mdistribution and the GB2 distribution. Applying this methodology on numerical examples, we demonstrate that dependence in the loss severities may have a dramatic effect on the estimated risk capital. In addition, we show also that one and the same high enough survival probability may be achieved by mdifferent risk capital accumulation strategies one of which may possibly be preferable to accumulating capital just linearly, as has been assumed by Embrechts et al. (2004). The proposed methodology takes into account also the effect of insurance on operational losses, in which case it is proposed to take the probability of joint survival of the financial institution and the insurance provider as a joint operational risk measure. The risk capital allocation strategy is then obtained in such a way that the probability of joint survival is equal to a preassigned high enough value, say 99.9 %
Publication Type:  Article 

Publisher Keywords:  operational risk losses; operational risk capital assessment; dependent losses; Poisson loss arrivals; capital accumulation function; loss severity distribution; finitetime ruin probability; copulas 
Subjects:  H Social Sciences > HG Finance 
Departments:  Cass Business School > Actuarial Science & Insurance 
URI:  http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/11961 

Text
 Draft Version
Download (185kB)  Preview 
Export
Downloads
Downloads per month over past year
Actions (login required)
Admin Login 