City Research Online

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamics of stock price volatility for different vessel-type segments of the U. S, water transportation industry . We measure market exposure by a portfolio of tanker, dry bulk, container, and gas stocks to examine tail behavior and tail risk dependence. The role of mixture distributions in predicting future volatility is studied from both statistical and economic perspectives. We further test for predictability in co-movements in the tails of sectors returns . Findings indicate that large losses are strongly correlated, supporting asymmetric transmission processes for financial contagion. Finally, using a non-parametric approach, we extend the model to the multivariate case and assess the value of volatility and correlation timing in optimal portfolio selection. The results can help to improve the understanding of time-varying volatility, correlation and tail systemic risk of shipping stock markets, and consequently, have implications for risk management and asset allocation practices, as well as regulatory policies.

Publication Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© 2018 Elsevier. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Publisher Keywords:	Shipping stocks; volatility forecasting; risk assessment practices; tail systemic risk; portfolio strategies
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management H Social Sciences > HE Transportation and Communications H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Departments:	Bayes Business School > Actuarial Science & Insurance Bayes Business School > Finance
SWORD Depositor:	Symplectic Administrator

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