City Research Online

Abstract

Deterministic control theory is used to find the optimal premium strategy for an insurer in order to maximise a given objective. The optimal strategy can be loss-leading depending on the model parameters, which may result in negative premium values. In such circumstances, it is optimal to capture as much of the market as possible before making a profit towards the end of the time horizon. In reality, the amount by which an insurer can lower premiums is constrained by borrowing restrictions and the risk inherent in building up a large exposure. Consequently, the effect of constraining the pricing problem is analysed with two forms of constraint: a bounded premium and a solvency requirement. If a lower bound is placed on the premium then an analytical solution can be found, which is not necessarily a smooth function of time. The optimal premium strategy is described in qualitative terms, without recourse to specifying particular parameter values, by considering the value of the terminal optimal premium. Solvency constraints lead to an optimisation problem which is coupled to the state equations and so there is no analytical solution. Numerical results are presented for a subset of the parameter space using control parameterisation, which turns the optimisation problem into a nonlinear programming problem.

Publication Type:	Monograph (Working Paper)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Departments:	Bayes Business School > Actuarial Science & Insurance > Actuarial Research Reports

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