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Abstract

This paper presents an empirical study of the channels of influence from uncertainty to fixed investment suggested by real options theory. Using panel data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Trends Survey, we report OLS estimates of the impact of uncertainty on investment where the regressors are augmented by cross-sectional averages of the dependent variable and of the individual specific regressors, as recently suggested by Pesaran [Pesaran, M.H., 2006. Estimation and Inference in large heterogeneous panels with a multifactor error structure. Econometrica 74, 967–1012]. The cross-industry pattern of results is checked for consistency with the pattern predicted by real options theory, using a specially constructed data set of industrial characteristics. We find that irreversibility is able to predict the pattern detected, but only when combined with a measure of the information advantage of delay. There is also evidence for expansion options effects; industries with high R&D and advertising intensities tend to have positive uncertainty effects.

Publication Type:	Article
Additional Information:	NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in International Journal of Industrial Organization. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in International Journal of Industrial Organization Volume 26, Issue 2, March 2008, Pages 532–545, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2007.03.003
Publisher Keywords:	Investment; Industry; Irreversibility; Real options; Uncertainty
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
Departments:	Bayes Business School > Finance
SWORD Depositor:	Symplectic Administrator

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