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Bayesian Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models

Imai, S., Jain, N. and Ching, A. (2009). Bayesian Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models. Econometrica, 77(6), pp. 1865-1899. doi: 10.3982/ECTA5658

Abstract

We propose a new methodology for structural estimation of infinite horizon dynamic discrete choice models. We combine the dynamic programming (DP) solution algorithm with the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm into a single algorithm that solves the DP problem and estimates the parameters simultaneously. As a result, the computational burden of estimating a dynamic model becomes comparable to that of a static model. Another feature of our algorithm is that even though the number of grid points on the state variable is small per solution-estimation iteration, the number of effective grid points increases with the number of estimation iterations. This is how we help ease the “curse of dimensionality.” We simulate and estimate several versions of a simple model of entry and exit to illustrate our methodology. We also prove that under standard conditions, the parameters converge in probability to the true posterior distribution, regardless of the starting values.

Publication Type: Article
Additional Information: The copyright to this article is held by the Econometric Society, http://www.econometricsociety.org/. It may be downloaded, printed and reproduced only for personal or classroom use. Absolutely no downloading or copying may be done for, or on behalf of, any for-profit commercial firm or for other commercial purpose without the explicit permission of the Econometric Society. For this purpose, contact the Editorial Office of the Econometric Society at econometrica@econometricsociety.org.
Publisher Keywords: Bayesian estimation; dynamic programming; discrete choice models; Markov chain Monte Carlo
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Departments: School of Arts & Social Sciences > Economics
Related URLs:
URI: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/5366
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