City Research Online

Abstract

For highly critical systems, thorough and costly processes exist to verify that they are safe enough before they are allowed to operate. Yet any such a priori assessment is affected by uncertainty: it may be wrong. Examples like the Boeing 737 MAX and Fukushima underscore how badly they may, occasionally, be wrong. We argue that risk assessment should take into account, more explicitly than is now usual, this uncertainty. Basic quantitative reasoning shows how this would change how we describe the risk of operating a new system. This may set new priorities in safety assessment research. We identify some research directions that may help this community better to forecast and control risk.

Publication Type:	Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Additional Information:	© the authors, 2024. This is a position paper for the position paper session.
Publisher Keywords:	Risk assessment, risk quantification, safety case, epistemic uncertainty
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management Q Science > QA Mathematics Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science
Departments:	School of Science & Technology School of Science & Technology > Computer Science School of Science & Technology > Computer Science > Software Reliability
SWORD Depositor:	Symplectic Administrator

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